Kurzbeschreibung:

Over the years, some very smart people have thought they understood the rules of chance-only to fail dismally. Whether you call it probability, risk, or uncertainty, the workings of chance often defy common sense. Fortunately, advances in math and science have revealed the laws of chance, and understanding those laws can help in your everyday life.
In Chancing It, award-winning scientist and writer Robert Matthews shows how to understand the laws of probability and use them to your advantage. He gives you access to some of the most potent intellectual tools ever developed and explains how to use them to guide your judgments and decisions. By the end of the book, you will know:
How to understand and even predict coincidences
When an insurance policy is worth having
Why "expert" predictions are often misleading
How to tell when a scientific claim is a breakthrough or baloney
When it makes sense to place a bet on...